Interpreting Statistics and Political Polls

Interpreting Statistics and Political Polls At any given time throughout a political campaign, the media may want to know what the public at large thinks about policies or candidates. One solution would be to ask everyone who they would vote for. This would be costly, time-consuming and infeasible. Another way to determine voter preference is to use a statistical sample. Rather than ask every voter to state his or her preference in candidates, polling research companies poll a relatively small number of people who their favorite candidate is. The members of the statistical sample help to determine the preferences of the entire population. There are good polls and not so good polls, so it is important to ask the following questions when reading any results. Who Was Polled? A candidate makes his or her appeal to the voters because the voters are the ones who cast ballots. Consider the following groups of people: AdultsRegistered votersLikely voters To discern the mood of the public any of these groups may be sampled. However, if the intent of the poll is to predict the winner of an election, the sample should be comprised of registered voters or likely voters. The political composition of the sample sometimes plays a role in interpreting poll results. A sample consisting entirely of registered Republicans would not be good if someone wanted to ask a question about the electorate at large. Since the electorate rarely breaks into 50% registered Republicans and 50% registered Democrats, even this type of sample may not be the best to use. When Was the Poll Conducted? Politics can be fast paced. Within a matter of days, an issue arises, alters the political landscape, then is forgotten by most when some new issue surfaces. What people were talking about on Monday sometimes seems to be a distant memory when Friday comes. News runs faster than ever, however, good polling takes the time to conduct. Major events can take several days to show up in poll results. The dates when a poll was conducted should be noted to determine if current events have had time to affect the numbers of the poll. What Methods Were Used? Suppose that Congress is considering a bill that deals with gun control. Read the following two scenarios and ask which is more likely to accurately determine the public sentiment. A blog asks its readers to click on a box to show their support of the bill. A total of 5000 participate and there is overwhelming rejection of the bill.A polling firm randomly calls 1000 registered voters and asks them about their support of the bill. The firm finds that their respondents are more or less evenly split for and against the bill. Although the first poll has more respondents, they are self-selected. It is likely that the people who would participate are those who have strong opinions. It could even be that the readers of the blog are very like-minded in their opinions (perhaps it is a blog about hunting). The second sample is random, and an independent party has selected the sample. Even though the first poll has a larger sample size, the second sample would be better. How Large Is the Sample? As the discussion above shows, a poll with a larger sample size is not necessarily the better poll. On the other hand, a sample size may be too small to state anything meaningful about public opinion. A random sample of 20 likely voters is too small to determine the direction that the entire U.S. population is leaning on an issue. But how large should the sample be? Associated with the size of the sample is the margin of error. The larger the sample size, the smaller the margin of error. Surprisingly, sample sizes as small as 1000 to 2000 are typically used for polls such as Presidential approval, whose margin of error is within a couple of percentage points. The margin of error could be made as small as desired by using a larger sample, however, this would require a higher cost to conduct the poll. Bringing It All Together The answers to the above questions should help in assessing the accuracy of results in political polls. Not all polls are created equally, and often details are buried in footnotes or omitted entirely in news articles that quote the poll. Thats why its important to be informed on how a poll was designed.

Planning and Controlling Capital Expenditures Essay

Planning and Controlling Capital Expenditures - Essay Example Thus most companies hold on capital expenditures every year, in an attempt to continuously upgrade and improve things like facilities, vehicles, buildings and equipment. A capital expenditure is considered deductible since it represents an improvement to the business and this deducted takes place over a specific life of an item, after than all at once as in the case of repair or maintenance expenditures. Sometimes it is cumbersome to determine the difference that exists in capital expenditure and a routine expense. Generally capital expenditure improves the worth of an asset while if it keeps the asset in working condition, it is referred to as routine expense. Hence, engaging in capital expenditure is a routine way of upgrading and expanding business whether done on a small scale or on a large scale (Pike and Neale, 2003). Large firms or corporations may acquire extra companies, as in the case of automotive giant which purchases another car manufacturer. Consequently, allowances are made in the budget of the company for the capital expenses, including the ones involving the replacement of items which are no longer repaired. Capital expenditures thus normally yield benefit over a long period of time resulting into fixed assets. The resource constraint is a frequent phenomenon of all the economic activities in business. In addition, when a firm is able to spend on specific items it is not willing to do so (Nice, 2002). Therefore, a systematic screening is established to accept or reject the investment proposal. Investment proposal are divided into two groups that is: Mutually exclusive proposals and independent proposals. Mutually exclusive proposals are proposals that have an alternative of doing the same thing. If one alternative is selected then the other one must be rejected for example: if in plant material facilities are required, they are grouped according to their economic benefits. The economic benefits of each of the proposal will be evaluated and the one with the contributing maximum economic benefits is chosen while the rest with less economic benefits are rejected (Pike and Neale, 2003). Ind ependent proposals are those items of capital expenditures that are always considered for different types of projects whose accomplishments are highly needed. In this case all independent proposals are independent of each other and are worthy for implementation. However, due to financial difficulties, priorities are assigned to each proposal according to the gravity of the need of the organization for example: in line with the material handling equipments, instruments such as machines for weighing, packing, stamping may be required(Cotts, 2007). Thus for mutually exclusive proposals the decision criterion is accept or reject while for independent proposals the decision criterion is mainly based in ranking. The decision taken is based on the methods of analyzing the capital budgeting decisions. The environment of capital expenditure proposals are widely grouped into: Expansion, Replacement, Diversification and Strategic proposals. Expansion proposals involve the capital expenditure t o boost the production capacity within the same line of production (Shah, 2007).The investments are basically made in the familiar areas of activity as it involves minimal business risk as compared to diversification, however, larger risk than replacement expenditure. Replacement capital expenditure implies replacement of old machinery by a new one or a modern one. This replacement only

Othello Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words - 10

Othello - Essay Example Lago and Roderigo constantly use the words â€Å"him† or â€Å"he† throughout the first part of the play. When they finally start to specify whom they are referring to, they do so with nicknames that depict racism. Racial epithets used by the actors include â€Å"the thick lips† and the â€Å"Barbary horse.† Although the presence of Othello is there in the second scene of the play, he becomes vocal at the center of Act 1, scene III. Later, Othello is the last to arrive at Cyprus as depicted in Act II, scene I. He stands apart while Lago and Cassio engage in a discussion, in Act IV the first scene. He also assumes that Cassion has passed away when the Act V’s fight occurs. The status of Othello as an outsider may be why he appears to be an easy target for Lago. Although Othello stands as a racial and cultural outsider in Venice, his experience and skills as a leader and soldier are valuable to the state, and he serves as an important part of Venetian society. The senate and the duke demand Othello greatly, as evidenced by Cassio’s pronouncements that the senate â€Å"sent around three several quests† to search for him (I.ii.46). The Venetian government places sufficient trust in Othello to put him in complete political and martial command of Cyprus. Othello, during his dying moments, helps the people of Venetian to recall the â€Å"service† he gave to their state (V.ii.348). Those who regard Othello as their civic and social peer, such as Brabanzio and Desdemona, appear drawn to him because of his exotic characteristics. Othello admits and tells of his friendship with Brabanzio. He states, â€Å"Desdemona’s father loved me, oft invited me† (I.iii.127–129). The character manages to capture the attention of his peers using his speech. The Dukes respond to the speech he gives by describing how he captured the attention of Desdemona with the fables of

Deductive and inductive criminal profiling Coursework

Deductive and inductive criminal profiling - Coursework Example Profiling methodologies differ mainly because all profilers are not trained uniformly and they have varying abilities. Basically, there are two kinds of profiling. Each describes different methodologies to this field of study. Inductive Criminal Profiling is hypothetically associated with the formation of a psychological model of symptoms and the ensuing evidence of symptoms. This method essentially entails racial generalizations based on statistics. Deductive Criminal Profiling is the less common technique of profiling. It can be thought of as, very broadly speaking, the Sherlock Holmes process where the profiler retains an open mind and examines all ideas, opinions and assumptions put forth regardless of how prominent the supplier of the information might be. Decisions concerning which person to stop, question and detain based on characteristic generalizations that are either perceived or observable such as race is founded on the inductive profiling method. However, â€Å"even whe n generalizations are statistically legitimate, they can be very erroneous in particular cases.† (Turvey, 1998). If law enforcement agencies implement the inductive profiling method, it serves to mislead the investigative process and adds the factor of pseudo-credibility to the method.

THeater Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

THeater - Assignment Example Although it is not the purpose of this brief response to elaborate upon the ways in which a playwright or filmmaker can attempt to differentiate without deviating to greatly from the original inspiration, it must be understood that one of the more effective means that this can be accomplished is by subtly yet clearly differentiating the characters from the original in such a way as they provide a level of understanding and nuance as compared to the work to which they are referencing. Within this brief analysis, the author will consider the means by which two of the characters in Rough Magic are distinctly differentiated and represented in a unique way as compared to two of the characters within William Shakespeare’s The Tempest. Finally, at level of analysis will also be given with regards to whether or not this author believes that Rough Magic has the innate potential to be a great film. With regards to the first character which will be discussed, that of Prospero, Rough Magi c portrays him in an entirely different light than did William Shakespeare within The Tempest. Within Shakespeare’s play, Prospero is portrayed as a bellowing, drunken, and un-poetic brute. This of course as a unique dynamic Shakespeare’s play the fact that the other characters are invariably forced into action and reaction based on the bombastic and rather infantile choices and actions that Prospero makes. Without deviating too far from the Shakespearean interpretation of Prospero, Aguirre-Sacasa defines him in a more nuanced manner as individual caught between an ongoing family feud in which he must take an active part. Rather than setting Prospero apart as the embodiment and personification of evil, the playwright reveals a more postmodernist interpretation by which absolute good or bad is not laid squarely upon the character of Prospero (Rough Magic, pg 4). In such a way, the level of differentiation and the means by which absolute good and bad are determined withi n Aguirre-Sacasa’s play as compared to Shakespeare’s are definitively noted with regards to the totality of Prospero’s character. In much the same way, the character of the Ariel is differentiated from William Shakespeare’s character as well as. Whereas the Ariel of Shakespeare’s play is something of an ethereal demigod that is suffered the torture of imprisonment, the Ariel of Aguirre-Sacasa’s play takes upon many of the less than favorable qualities that are somewhat unexpected. It is the understanding of this particular author that the main reason for doing this was to create something of a differential regards the way in which Shakespeare presented the character as compared to the way it was presented within this particular flight. In short, the representation of Ariel within William Shakespeare’s The Tempest was the quintessential woman scorned. Although the same can be true with regards to Rough Magic, the key differential is th at the damsel in distress dynamic is far less evidenced (Rutter, 2003) Within such an understanding, Ariel are self comes represent a horrific and terrifying creature that is

Reflections on Contemporary Leadership Issues and Strategies Essay

Reflections on Contemporary Leadership Issues and Strategies - Essay Example The application of various concepts in the practical world allows one to understand the functionality and dynamic nature that leadership requires, in order for this subtle art to be effective. The class boasts of a plethora of different nationalities and backgrounds that have made me appreciate key ideologies like teamwork, motivation and appreciating diversity amongst many other. Leadership is not merely about managing people and increasing productivity to generate higher profit levels. It is an amalgamation of various personal, social and strategic skills. True skills promoted by leaders are developed over a period of time, and are evolved through regular use in all aspects of the daily routine of an individual. This by no means implies that the same skill set will apply and work in all situations. While certain individuals possess inherent leadership qualities and abilities, others will need to perfect their skills through learning and practicing. One feature which must be remembered by all is that true leadership values can never be taught; they must be groomed through use. The feedback provided by my fellow colleagues was an enlightening experience that allowed for an understanding from a different perspective. Conversations and discussions allowed everyone to contribute to the matter in an open environment, with each individual able to discuss their views and experiences of leadership. This provided a more comprehensive outlook of the subject, with examples of various industries and sectors like information technology (IT), health care, hospitality, human resources (HR) and construction; from the public and private aspects, with global and local perspectives. Everyone has a different way of relating to/with leadership. I believe that my personal reflection varies from most of the generic scenarios. Most of the course text assigned to us provided detailed discussions on leadership from a business outlook. While these harnessed ideas and

Pier scour in Coarse bed and cohesive materials Research Paper

Pier scour in Coarse bed and cohesive materials - Research Paper Example This is the overall mission of the United States Department of the interior and the United States Geological Survey. The two mentioned departments are responsible for bridges and scours which this paper seeks to discuss. Studies have evidently determined that streambed scours are the leading cause of bridge failure in the United States. This results to approximately 60 percent of all bridge failures. The societal repercussions that are associated with failures and the costs that are linked to repair are amplified in Alaska, alternate routes of ground transportation between several cities are not in existence. Bridge culvert damages cost a lot to the economy, for example, in 2002 the damage in Kenai Peninsula was estimated at about 19 million dollars. This led to bridge site examination for scour. Purpose This paper therefore seeks to discuss pier scour in coarse bed and cohesive materials. The purpose of this paper is very open: to know how scour works and why bridges fall down. This is an issue that everyone could be interested in. Several bridges have been witnessed fall down and it has taken my attention to study how the whole process takes place. Bridges are normally built by technical experts and are expected to stay for maximum periods as prescribed by the civil engineers and architectures; however, scour has remained a disappointment to such expectations. Justas the aim of the paper: to discuss pier scour in coarse bed and cohesive materials, I am interested in understanding every single detail about the entire process of scour, types of scour, and its fundamental equations. Background on Scour Scour may refer to as remove by washing hard and rubbing and/ or rub hard with a cleansing rough material. Basically it accounts for a hole that remains behind when sand and rocks, sediments are washed away from the river bottom. Even though scour often occur at any particular time, the scour action is strong especially during flood season. This is because swiftly flowing water has much energy than slowly flowing calm water to lift and wash away sediments from the river bottom. Scour is of a great concern to bridges. This is because if rocks or sediment on which bridge is supported or rest is scoured by the river, it is most probably that the bridge could be very unsafe for travel purposes. For example, in 1987 when the Interstate Highway bridge over Schoharie Creek in the state of New York collapsed following a flood, the Federal Highway Administration demanded that each state to specify bridges on the highway over water that are likely to experience problems of scour and to have the bridges with severe scour identified. This knowledge of bridge sites in which there are potential scour problems will enable the States to improve and monitor the bridge conditions ahead of time before they pose danger to travelers. Types of scour There are three main types of scour that affect bridges. The following are the major types of scour that may pose d anger to highway bridges over water: Local scour: this occurs when sediments are swept away from around bridge piers and/ or abutments: the pillars that support bridges and those that support the end of the bridge. Flowing water past abutment or pier may scoop holes out in the sediment resulting into an